08-26-2008

Conference Call with Alabama Senate Candidate Vivian Figures

Generation Blue PAC

is Excited to Announce a Members-Only Conference Call with
State Senator Vivian Figuresof the Alabama State Senate 

Thu., Aug. 28th @ Noon
RSVP to Generationblue@gmail.com for Call-in Info

and join today!

 

Alabama State Senator Vivian Davis Figures is the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.  Figures is serving her third full term in the Alabama State Senate, where she is the Chair of the Education Committee.  As such, it is no surprise that Figures supports increased educational benefits for Veterans as outlined in the new GI Bill and making education in the U.S. a budget priority.  Figures is also campaigning on an anti-Iraq War platform, strongly advocating bringing our troops home from Iraq.  Figures is a proponent of affordable health care for all citizens and of tax reform that would close tax loopholes for large corporations and the super rich.
 
Figures is running against Republican incumbent Jeff Sessions.  A strong George W. Bush supporter, Sessions was ranked by National Journal as the fifth-most conservative U.S. Senator in March 2007.
 
In her first ever state-wide election, Figures won the Democratic primary with an overwhelming 63.7% of the popular vote in a 3-way race.  Although Alabama is a historically conservative state, Figures appeals to Alabamians who are eager for a positive change in the state’s political landscape.

Figures will be speaking with Generation Blue PAC members live from the Democratic Convention in Denver!

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08-26-2008

Back From Hiatus, Lots of New Polls and Ads

First, some very interesting polling in races that we’re watching closely:

In North Carolina, a series of polls in the last two weeks show Kay Hagan pulling closer to Elizabeth Dole:  two weeks ago, Survey USA has Dole up only 5 at 46-41, then last week Insider Advantage had it deadlocked at 40-40, while Civitas had Dole up 3 44-41, now PPP actually has Kay Hagan UP 3 42-39!  An incumbent averaging the low 40s before Labor Day has some serious problems and we’re starting to think this race goes into September in the top tier.

In New Hampshire, another poll predicts the involuntary retirement of John Sununu, this time ARG showing Generation Blue-supported Jeanne Shaheen, 52-41.  Last week Rasmussen had it 52-43.   No poll in 2008 has shown incumbent Republican Sununu with more than 45% support.

In Colorado, two more polls have Generation Blue-supported Mark Udall up 8-10 points, Mason Dixon 47-37 and Suffolk 39-31.  But what may be even more interesting is that in the very Republican Congressional District Colorado-4, Congress’s most conservative member, Marilyn Musgrave, is polling behind her opponent 50-43!  If you had to pick one Congressional district where the entire election may be waged, it’s this one:  one of the three most critical Presidential states, with one of the most competitive Senate races in the country, and now one of the most competitive Congressional races.

Speaking of Colorado, here are two tough negative ads now on the air against Republican Bob Schaffer from the DSCC and VoteVets. 

DSCC:

And finally, here’s a nice ad from Jeff Merkley, who we will be meeting on September 17th (sign up for the event today!!!):

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08-15-2008

End of Week Wrap Up

*  Three new polls out for Mark Udall’s race for U.S. Senate in Colorado, all show him leading by 6-8 points.  [Rocky Mountain News 44-38; Rasmussen 50-42 (47-41 without “leaners”); Public Policy Polling 47-41]

*  Very big news:  Karl Rove said something that’s actually true.   He said the election will be won or lost in four states:  Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.  After weeks of careful analysis here at Generation Blue, we’ve reached exactly the same conclusion. 

If Obama wins all the Kerry states, plus Iowa and New Mexico, which he will in any close election, then a win in Ohio, Virginia or Colorado will seal the deal for him.  For McCain to win, he needs to either go 3/3 in those states, or snatch a major Democratic state away even as he loses one or two of them, and right now Michigan looks like his best bet.

*  Generation Blue will be hosting Oregon’s Democratic House Speaker and candidate for U.S. Senate, Jeff Merkley.  Contribute now!  If you are interested in joining the finance committee for the event (and we can assure you, we’re interested in you), please e-mail us at generationblue@gmail.com.

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08-12-2008

Two Questions

1)  Now that the font of all conventional wisdom, ABC News, has noticed that McCain’s commercials seem to focus on linking Obama to white women, is it polite yet for the rest of us to notice?  Or should we just keep focusing on how weird and exotic Hawaii is?

2)  Do you get to call yourself the safe bet on foreign policy when your first reaction to a crisis is to recite from the relevant wikipedia page?

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08-08-2008

Generation Blue PAC announces 9/17/08 Event with Jeff Merkley

Generation Blue PAC is excited to announce:

An Evening with

Jeff Merkley

 

Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives

and

Democratic candidate for United States Senate

Wednesday, September 17th, 2008 at 8:00 pm

Inc. Lounge (2d Floor of the Time Hotel)

 224 49th Street between Broadway & 8th Avenue

According to recent polls, Speaker Merkley is locked in a dead heat against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith.  This race is the top priority of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and victory will be critical to the ability of the Democratic majority to break Republican filibusters in the next administration.

Non-members may attend with a $250 contribution to Generation Blue PAC (recent graduates and public servants may attend for $125 and students for $25).   Current members of Generation Blue PAC may attend for free.

Click here to contribute.

Click here to learn more about Jeff Merkley.  Click here to see an interview of Jeff Merkley on our website, and here to see a commercial run against Merkley’s opponent, Gordon Smith. 

If you’d like to get involved and help us plan the event or raise money, please e-mail us at generationblue@gmail.com, we can use all the help we can get.

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08-05-2008

FiveThirtyEight.com Senate Update

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com has updated his Senate ratings and its definitely worth a look if you are addicted to polls.  In particular, note how Jeff Merkley’s race against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith in Oregon continues to climb into the top tier of competitive races.

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08-05-2008

Colorado Republican Senate Nominee’s Son

We have mixed feelings about seeing the child of a politician dragged into a campaign.  Campaign’s shouldn’t be about a candidate’s 19 year old son.  But, on the other hand, Bob Schaffer stuck his son in his first Senate ad and its not as if his son is exactly keeping his views private.

And good old Captain Bootyplunder seems to have quite a set of views.  “Slavery gets s— done” certainly tops the list, but it only gets a little bit better from there.  Check it out.  Also, its good to know that in response to hearing about his son’s offensive sense of humor when it comes to slavery, Schaffer’s response is that he and his wife “have initiated a process of firm and severe discipline . . .”

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08-05-2008

NY Times on Shaheen Race

Great article in yesterday’s NY Times on former NH Governor’s race for the U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent John Sununu.   This race will be critical for the Senate Democrats to have a good night in November and it appears that money will be critical.  We’re certainly glad that Generation Blue has invested in this particular race.

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07-31-2008

So Who is Vic Vickers?

Recall that we alluded the other day to the fact that the Stevens indictment could be a blessing in disguise for the GOP because it might result in Stevens being knocked off now in favor of a candidate more likely to hold the seat.

But that thinking might be a bit premature.  Meet Vic Vickers, the leading primary challenger to Stevens, who hates big oil, can’t think of another Alaska Republican that he admires and thinks George W. Bush is the worst President ever.

We want a Democrat, specifically Mark Begich, to win this seat.  But we have to admit, a Senate chamber with this guy holding one of the votes in the balance would be pretty good entertainment.

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07-30-2008

Series of Tubes

Ted Stevens is a pretty interesting guy, although as hard core Deadwood fans, we think the New Republic’s characterization of Stevens as Al Swearengen is a bridge too far (really, who has Stevens murdered to cover up the sale of a fraudulent prospecting claim?  and is he heng dai with Wu?).  We hope if we have to see Stevens go, its in November, in favor of Mark Begich, and not before.

In the meantime, we feel we’d be remiss if we didn’t use this opportunity to reintroduce the awesome “the internet is a series of tubes” Ted Stevens floor speech/dance remix back into the public discourse.  Enjoy.

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07-29-2008

Alaska Republican Senator Ted Stevens Indicted

This could change the Senate pickup map for the better, or, if Steven resigns and a stronger Republican enters the race, the worse.

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07-24-2008

Schumer Sees 60 Seat Filibuster Proof Majority as Possible

We’d be remiss if we didn’t share this with you from the Huffington Post:

“I know you’ll ask me, can we get to sixty?” the New York Democrat and head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said on Wednesday. “And I’d say it’s very difficult given the map, but its not out of the question.”

another snippet:

[T]he National Republican Senatorial Committee is being drastically out-raised by its Democratic counterpart. Schumer highlighted five states as ripe for the picking — Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and Alaska — as well as six others that could be close: Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina. If nine seats were to change hands (and if the caucus allows Joe Lieberman to stay in its ranks), Democrats would have the filibuster-proof 60 that has long been viewed as a pipe-dream.

Setting aside the magic number of 60, we think that with a possible win in Oregon a pickup of six is a very distinct possibility, putting the majority at 57.  Throw in an unexpected phenom at the eleventh hour similar to Jim Webb in 2006, maybe you see 58.  That means you cut a deal with the moderate Republican Senators from Maine and you’ve got 60 votes, perhaps you have to pick up another Republican where you lose Lieberman (and you may lose him permanently).  Next year could be very interesting.

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07-24-2008

New Polls in CO, MN, and NH; New Ad in Oregon

First, in Colorado, Rasmussen has Generation Blue’s own Mark Udall up only narrowly over Bob Schaffer, 49-46 (but 47-43 when you exclude the ‘leaners’).  This represents a bit of a jump of Schaffer’s support in this poll from 40 to 46 while Udall has stayed put.

In Minnesota, Rasmussen has Al Franken up 49-46 over the party switcher, Norm Coleman (but down 43-44 when you exclude the ‘leaners’).

Finally, we have two contradictory results out of New Hamphire.  The University of New Hampshire shows a tight race, with Generation Blue’s own former Governor Jeanne Shaheen narrowly edging Republican incumbent Senator John Sununu, and this is a cut in half of Shaheen’s lead in this same poll from back in late April, when they had it 52-40.  On the other hand, ARG is out with a poll yesterday showing Shaheen crushing Sununu, 58-36.

Finally, the DSCC is up with a new ad in Oregon going after incumbent Republican and election year moderate/off-year conservative Gordon Smith.  We think this is a pretty good sign that the DSCC is thinking what we’re thinking:  that challenger Jeff Merkley may be emerging into the top tier of Democratic Senate challengers with a very strong chance of grabbing a seat.  Here’s the ad:

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07-20-2008

Interviews with Mark Begich and Jeff Merkley

Over at Talking Points Mem0, they’ve been covering the Netroots Nation convention down in Austin, TX.  David Kurtz has now interviewed Anchorage Mayor and Alaska Democratic U.S. Senate challenger Mark Begich and Oregon House Speaker and Democratic U.S. Senate challenger Jeff Merkley.  But before you take a look at the interviews, we have some good news in both races:

The Cook Political Report has moved its rating of the Oregon Senate race to toss-up and in a recent Research 2000 poll, Begich leads incumbent Ted Stevens 47-45.  What amazes us about the Stevens poll is that his disapproval rating is 61% (which also means at least one out of every ten voters who disapprove of Ted Stevens are going to vote for him anyway, likely because they are hard-core Republicans).

Now, here are the interviews.  First, Mark Begich:

Here’s Jeff Merkley:

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07-18-2008

It Was All In Our Heads

Generation Blue’s favorite John McCain surrogate might have to be former Texas Republican U.S. Senator and spectacularly failed Presidential candidate Phil Gramm, who recently got himself unceremoniously tossed off the (Not-so) Straight-Talk Express for calling the United States a “nation of whiners” and declaring that the current economic problems are really just a “mental recession” that is in our heads.

Shortly after, McCain declared Gramm eligible only for an ambassadorship to Belarus and no longer economist-in-chief while McCain brushes up by reading Greenspan’s book.  But never mind, apparently that was all in our heads too.  Gramm is back.  Just focus on the shiny object people.

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07-18-2008

Baghdad Bob Schaffer Caught in Lie, Admits Flouting U.S. State Department

Generation Blue is proud to have contributed the maximum to Mark Udall, Democratic Congressman from Colorado and opponent of Bob Schaffer, who every day makes it more clear that he is a corrupt clown.  Because its Colorado, it sort of reminds us of the John Sayles 2004 movie Silver City.

Al Franken is apparently shoring up his campaign team according to Chris Cilizza of the Washington Post. 

Finally, check out this gem of an ad against Gordon Smith:

Have a great weekend everyone!

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07-16-2008

Latest Senate Polls

Generation Blue contributee Mary Landrieu is over 50% against her opponent, recent party switcher John Kennedy, 51-45.  This is a bump up for Landrieu from six weeks ago, when the race was 47-44.

Here’s a very intriguing poll out of Oregon, showing Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley in a dead heat against Gordon Smith, 46-46.  Merkley is ahead 43-41 when “leaners” are excluded from the poll, and has improved substantially from being nine points down a month ago.  We are watching this one very closely.

In North Carolina, Republican Senator Liddy Dole maintains a lead against Democratic challenger Kay Hagan, 54-42.  This poll provides extensive internal breakdowns, which frankly don’t look so good for Kay Hagan, who is losing substantially among white voters, and more surprisingly, younger voters.  She is, however, tied among women.

Finally, even with Jesse “the body” Ventura out of the race, the Minnesota Senate race numbers are all over the board, with one poll showing Franken up, 44-42 , and another showing him way back, 52-39.  As has been noted over on Talking Points Memo, both of these pollsters have very good track records for accuracy, so where this race is right now is anyone’s guess.

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07-14-2008

McCain = Empty Ball of Confusion Vol. II

Before 1993:  Czechoslovakia.  After 1993:  Czech Republic and Slovakia, two different countries.  McCain’s apparently not so clear on that.  Kind of reinforces the idea that maybe the guy should join the information age and use the google.  Or just join the year 2008.

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07-14-2008

President of an Information Society

with no way to access information independently.  John McCain won’t get a 3 am phone call asking him to open an e-mail.  But he very well could have advisors feeding him bad information that he would know is bad if he just used the google.  Is abject dependence on others for gathering information really endearing in a guy who is supposed to lead a modern information society that demands decisions in real time in constantly changing conditions?  If John McCain knew how to use a computer do you think he’d know the difference between Sunnis and Shia five years into the war in Iraq? 

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07-14-2008

Good News in Colorado

Obama holds on to a slim 47-43 lead, and Mark Udall leads Bob Schaffer 47-39.

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